World on the Brink: SIPRI Warns of Dangerous New Nuclear Arms Race

 June 16, 2025 – The world stands on the cusp of a dangerous new nuclear arms race, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) warned today, as it released its annual assessment of global armaments, disarmament, and international security. The grim prognosis comes amid a widespread weakening of arms control frameworks and an alarming trend of nuclear modernization and expansion by nearly all of the nine nuclear-armed states.

According to the newly published SIPRI Yearbook 2025, the overall global inventory of nuclear warheads stood at an estimated 12,241 in January 2025. While this represents a slight decline from the previous year, driven primarily by the dismantlement of retired warheads by the United States and Russia, the critical finding is that the number of operational warheads in military stockpiles is beginning to increase. Approximately 9,614 warheads are in military stockpiles for potential use, with a concerning 3,912 deployed on missiles and aircraft.

SIPRI Director Dan Smith highlighted the severe challenges facing nuclear arms control. "Bilateral nuclear arms control between Russia and the USA entered crisis some years ago and is now almost over," Smith stated. With the New START treaty between the two largest nuclear powers set to expire in February 2026 and no negotiations underway for a replacement, the future of quantitative arms control appears uncertain.

The report reveals that all nine nuclear-armed states—the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel—continued intensive nuclear modernization programmes throughout 2024. This involves not only upgrading existing weapons but also developing newer versions with enhanced capabilities.

Key findings from the SIPRI Yearbook 2025 include:

• China's Rapid Expansion: China's nuclear arsenal is growing faster than any other country's, adding approximately 100 warheads per year since 2023 to reach an estimated 600 by early 2025. China has also completed or is close to completing around 350 new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos. SIPRI notes that China may now be placing warheads on missiles during peacetime, a significant shift in its long-standing policy.
• India and Pakistan's Development: Both India and Pakistan are believed to have continued expanding their nuclear programmes in 2024. India's arsenal has increased to an estimated 180 warheads, up from 172 in 2024, and it is developing new types of nuclear delivery systems, including "canisterized" missiles that could carry warheads in peacetime. Pakistan's arsenal is estimated at 170 warheads, with continued development of new delivery systems.
• Modernization Across the Board: The UK is increasing its stockpile and building new submarines. France is also developing third-generation submarines and new air-launched cruise missiles. Israel is believed to be modernizing its undeclared nuclear arsenal. The US received 200 "modernized" nuclear warheads last year, the most since the Cold War.
• Emerging Technologies and AI: SIPRI warns that the next nuclear arms race will be as much about artificial intelligence (AI), cyberspace, and outer space as it is about physical missiles or bombs. The growing role of AI in nuclear command systems, and the possibility of automation in launch decisions, is raising "doomsday alarms" and increasing risks.
• Reduced Transparency: The institute highlighted a worrying lack of transparency from many nuclear powers, making it harder to assess the true scale and nature of developments.

The confluence of geopolitical tensions—including ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza—and the erosion of international arms control agreements is creating an increasingly unstable and dangerous global security environment. SIPRI emphasized the urgent need for renewed dialogue among nuclear-armed states and the re-establishment of verifiable arms control mechanisms to prevent a further deterioration of global security.